TCS Q1 FY26 Results Preview: BSNL Impact, Modest Growth Expected, Key Share Price Insights
The anticipation is building as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India’s most valuable IT firm, prepares to release its Q1 FY26 earnings today, July 10, 2025. The company’s performance is being closely watched by market participants, especially those tracking “tcs share price,” “tcs nse share price,” and “tcs share price today.”
While the Street expects a stable quarter, the real story lies in the underlying details. From pressure in international markets to the sharp ramp-down of BSNL-related business, this quarter may reveal more than just numbers. Can TCS outperform muted expectations, or is a downside surprise in store?
What Analysts Expect from TCS This Quarter
Brokerages across the board are predicting subdued growth for the IT giant. The profit is expected to land between ₹12,040 crore and ₹12,416 crore, reflecting a mere 1%–3% increase from last year. Revenue growth may remain modest as well, in the 2.7%–3.8% range YoY, with topline figures expected to fall between ₹62,613 crore and ₹64,993 crore.
Kotak Institutional Equities, for instance, projects PAT at ₹12,351 crore, showing a 2.6% rise year-on-year. Their revenue estimate stands at ₹64,993 crore — among the higher end of expectations. However, their forecast of a 0.4% decline in constant currency revenue signals caution, especially due to the anticipated drop in BSNL contribution.
BSNL Project: The Invisible Weight on TCS
One of the major talking points this quarter is the fallout from the BSNL deal. According to estimates, TCS's revenue from this telecom giant may have fallen by as much as US$57 million sequentially. Nuvama and Kotak both see this ramp-down as a significant hit, leading to a drag on constant currency growth numbers.
This loss is expected to impact the quarter’s overall growth despite resilience in some international markets. The telecom sector’s weakness, combined with sluggish retail and manufacturing demand, could offset gains elsewhere.
Some Light in the Darkness: BFSI Remains Resilient
On a brighter note, TCS’s performance in the Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFSI) sector continues to offer stability. In a quarter where discretionary IT spending remains under strain, BFSI could become the key pillar supporting the company’s profitability.
Both Kotak and InCred expect stable EBIT margins, with a sequential improvement up to 24.7%, although still slightly below last year’s levels. This marginal recovery is a welcome development amid broader macro concerns.
How Has the TCS Share Price Reacted?
TCS shares closed at ₹3,384 on the BSE in the session before earnings day — a decline of 0.65%. Over the past three months, the stock has inched up 4%, but the year-to-date performance is still in the red, showing an 18% decline. Looking further back, the 3-year return is also subdued at just 4%.
With investors frequently searching for “tcs share price nse,” “nse tcs,” and “tcs stock price today,” the upcoming results could be a pivotal moment for the stock's near-term direction.
Technical View: A Crucial Resistance Approaches
Technically, TCS is hovering near its resistance zone at ₹3,400. A breakout above ₹3,420 could ignite bullish sentiment. Conversely, a break below ₹3,300 may prompt further selling. With RSI levels indicating a neutral bias, market participants are likely waiting on the Q1 numbers before committing either way.
What Will Move the Stock Post Results?
The numbers alone may not dictate TCS’s stock trajectory. Instead, investors will focus on:
- Management guidance for FY26 amid weak global demand
- Updates on deal wins and contract value (TCV) trends
- Clarity on when BSNL revenue could normalize (if at all)
- Any positive commentary on growth verticals like BFSI and healthcare
Flashback: How TCS Performed in Q4 FY25
To put things in perspective, the company’s last reported quarter wasn’t exactly a blockbuster. TCS posted a net profit of ₹12,224 crore in Q4 FY25 — down 1.7% YoY. While revenue grew 5.3% to ₹64,479 crore, it fell short of analyst expectations.
Despite these figures, the firm clocked a record total contract value (TCV) of $12.2 billion, supported by a robust book-to-bill ratio of 1.6. Cash flow was strong, too, with operating cash flow at 125.1% of net income.
The Final Word: Steady But Not Spectacular
In summary, the Q1 FY26 results from Tata Consultancy Services are unlikely to set the market on fire. But they may still offer comfort in consistency. With IT peers also facing pressure, TCS’s stable margins and ongoing strength in BFSI may set it apart — if only slightly.
For investors tracking “tcs share rate today,” “nse: tcs,” “tcs stock price nse,” and “share price of tcs,” today’s earnings could serve as a crucial pivot point. Stay tuned to see whether TCS will beat muted expectations or fall further into cautious territory.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult with a financial expert before making any decisions in the stock market.
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