Should You Buy Reliance Shares After Profit Dip? Analyst Ratings Suggest Big Upside in 2025
The recent earnings release by Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) has sparked widespread attention—not just because of its stellar numbers, but due to the surprise dip in its stock price. Despite reporting a record-breaking ₹30,783 crore net profit for the June 2025 quarter, Reliance share price fell nearly 2% in opening trade on July 21 as investors booked early profits. But this dip has prompted an important question—is now the right time to buy?
According to a sweeping consensus from top brokerages like Motilal Oswal, Nuvama, Jefferies, Nomura, Axis Capital, and Morgan Stanley, the answer leans towards a resounding ‘yes.’ An overwhelming 92% of analysts covering the stock currently have a “buy” recommendation. As of July 19, the stock closed at ₹1,476 on the NSE and has already rallied over 20% in 2025.
Reliance Industries Q1FY26 Highlights: Core Strength Beyond One-Time Gains
The company reported a staggering 77% year-on-year jump in profit during the April-June 2025 quarter, largely aided by an exceptional gain of ₹8,924 crore from its stake sale in Asian Paints. Even excluding this, RIL’s net profit surged 25%, supported by consistent performance across its telecom, retail, and refining divisions.
Consolidated revenue rose by 6% to ₹2.73 lakh crore, while EBITDA climbed 36% to ₹58,024 crore. The company’s ability to grow its core business despite global macroeconomic challenges has reinforced investor faith and analyst optimism alike.
Why Did the Share Price Dip Then?
The short answer: profit-booking. With Reliance Industries stock price rising over 20% year-to-date, early investors likely saw the earnings release as an opportunity to cash out. However, brokerages argue that this temporary weakness offers a long-term buying opportunity.
On examining the RIL share price chart, it becomes clear that the ₹1,470–₹1,480 zone is now acting as a crucial support level. Any correction below this could be short-lived given the fundamental tailwinds building up across the business.
Brokerages Bet Big: Targets as High as ₹1,767
- Nuvama: Highest price target of ₹1,767, down slightly from ₹1,801, still implies a 20% upside.
- Axis Capital: Revised target to ₹1,764 from ₹1,720 earlier.
- Jefferies: Retained a ₹1,726 target, positive on refining margins and future earnings.
- Morgan Stanley: Slightly cautious but still ‘overweight’ with a ₹1,617 target.
- Nomura: Bullish on new energy, Jio, and retail; target ₹1,600.
Despite some cautious notes on guidance optimism, nearly all firms maintain a long-term “buy” view, especially with the Reliance Industries limited share price still below most analyst targets.
Jio: A Telecom Titan in the Making
Reliance Jio, the group’s telecom arm, added 9.9 million new subscribers this quarter and continues to grow at a strong pace. Motilal Oswal projects a 19% EBITDA CAGR for Jio between FY25 and FY28, with expectations of tariff hikes and a potential IPO adding further upside triggers.
The possibility of a Jio listing being announced at Reliance’s upcoming AGM has caught the attention of both institutional and retail investors. Many believe this could unlock significant shareholder value.
Retail Arm Rebounds with Double-Digit Growth
Reliance Retail delivered an 11.3% rise in revenue to ₹84,171 crore, while EBITDA rose 12.7%. Motilal Oswal forecasts a 14–15% CAGR for both metrics. The FMCG business, still in its early years, clocked ₹11,450 crore in sales, indicating rapid scaling potential.
The company continues to expand store count and deepen product offerings, which analysts believe could significantly boost future profitability.
O2C Business: Margins Improve Despite Revenue Dip
The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division, often considered Reliance’s traditional core, showed mixed results. Revenue dipped 1.5% YoY to ₹1.55 lakh crore due to crude price softness and refinery maintenance. However, EBITDA rose 11% to ₹14,511 crore, driven by higher domestic fuel margins.
Jefferies remains confident about the refining outlook and continues to back the segment’s structural resilience.
New Energy: The Dark Horse with Multi-Decade Potential
RIL’s green energy vision is also catching fire among analysts. Nuvama says the segment could become the company’s biggest growth engine in the next 4–6 quarters. Petchem expansion is on track for FY27, and increased US ethane imports are expected to lift margins.
With a vision to double profits by 2029, Chairman Mukesh Ambani has laid out an aggressive blueprint spanning renewables, hydrogen, and battery storage—triggers that could completely transform the business.
What to Expect from Reliance AGM 2025?
All eyes are now on RIL’s upcoming Annual General Meeting. Investors and analysts are eagerly waiting for updates on:
- Jio IPO and possible listing dates
- New energy roadmap and project timelines
- Retail expansion plans and FMCG thrust
- Updates on tariff hikes and subscriber strategy
Brokerages expect the AGM to be a major stock-moving event, particularly if clarity emerges on the listing of Jio and key updates in the green energy vertical.
📚 Historical AGM Trends
- 2020: Jio-Google deal led to 10% rally post-AGM
- 2021: Retail expansion announcements led to 4% gains
- 2022: Hydrogen mission triggered short-term jump
Based on this pattern, investors anticipate key triggers at the upcoming AGM which could move the stock significantly.
Conclusion: Dip or Opportunity?
While the recent pullback in Reliance share price today might have worried short-term traders, long-term investors should look at the broader story. RIL’s fundamentals remain rock solid across its three major verticals—Telecom, Retail, and Energy.
The upcoming AGM, combined with the company’s new energy ambitions, could act as the next major catalyst. With nse: reliance trading below analyst targets and 92% of experts calling it a buy, the case for holding or even accumulating Reliance shares in 2025 has never looked stronger.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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