Ather Energy Buy Ratings by HSBC, Nomura: Is the ₹345 Share Price Undervalued?

Ather Energy Share Price Outlook: HSBC, Nomura Give Buy Ratings with Up to ₹458 Target – Is This EV Stock Set to Soar?

Ather Energy is gaining major investor attention after two leading global brokerages—HSBC and Nomura—initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish stance. The Bengaluru-based electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer has been in the spotlight following the signing of a significant MoU with the Commerce Ministry under the Build in Bharat initiative, focusing on clean mobility and advanced manufacturing. The recent developments have put Ather Energy shares on the radar of institutional and retail investors alike.

On July 30, 2025, Ather Energy shares closed at ₹345, marking a 1.75% gain from the previous close. With the stock trading in a relatively narrow range over the last month, the bullish outlook from Nomura and HSBC—with target prices of ₹458 and ₹450, respectively—suggests a potential upside of over 30% from current levels.

Why Are HSBC and Nomura Bullish on Ather Energy?

Nomura expects electric vehicle penetration in the two-wheeler (2W) market to increase from 6% in FY25 to 19% by FY30. With internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles expected to peak in volumes by FY30 due to the implementation of BS-VII emission norms, the shift to EVs is seen as a long-term opportunity. Nomura believes Ather is well-positioned to benefit from this trend, citing strong fundamentals, product innovation, and an expanding distribution network.

Nomura has valued Ather Energy based on a 3.3x EV/Sales multiple on average FY27–FY28 projected revenues, backed by a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation. It expects Ather’s EBITDA margins to turn positive by mid-FY28F and continue to ramp up as the PLI (Production Linked Incentive) scheme ends.

HSBC, on the other hand, highlighted Ather’s market position as the fourth-largest EV 2W manufacturer in India with a 14% market share. The brokerage emphasized Ather’s product quality, tech leadership, and growing distribution reach as key differentiators that even larger incumbents will struggle to replicate. HSBC forecasts a 47% revenue CAGR between FY25 and FY28, along with EBITDA breakeven by Q4 FY27.

The bank also noted that Ather’s execution—rather than overall industry growth—will determine its stock performance. It added that faster-than-expected EV penetration could significantly boost earnings and valuation.

Build in Bharat Initiative: A New Catalyst

In a major policy development, Ather Energy recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Commerce Ministry under the Build in Bharat initiative. The initiative, driven by the Startup Policy Forum (SPF), aims to promote clean mobility and advanced manufacturing.

Under this partnership, Ather will contribute to strategic mentorship of deep-tech EV startups and help strengthen infrastructure in the EV supply chain. This move is expected to enhance Ather’s ecosystem presence and bolster its positioning as a long-term EV leader in India.

Q4 FY25 Financials: Losses Narrow, Revenue Grows

Ather Energy reported robust financial performance for the January–March quarter of FY25. The company narrowed its net loss to ₹234.4 crore, down from ₹283.3 crore a year ago. Revenue rose 29% year-on-year to ₹676 crore, up from ₹523.4 crore, largely driven by strong demand for its latest family scooter—the Rizta.

Vehicle sales also showed healthy growth, with 40,700 units sold in Q4 FY25 compared to 35,908 in the previous quarter. Although operating expenses increased by 12.6% to ₹922.2 crore, Ather’s EBITDA loss improved significantly, falling to ₹172.5 crore from ₹238.5 crore. The margin improvement is a positive sign, indicating better cost control and operating leverage coming into play.

Ather’s Growth Strategy: Technology, Distribution, and Ecosystem Expansion

Ather’s growth strategy hinges on three pillars—cutting-edge technology, a fast-growing distribution network, and integration within the broader EV ecosystem. Its in-house developed scooters such as the 450X and the Rizta are equipped with advanced features like OTA updates, fast charging, and smart navigation, making them appealing to tech-savvy Indian consumers.

The company has also been rapidly expanding its dealership network. Ather plans to scale from around 200 experience centers today to over 500 in the next three years. This distribution expansion will be crucial to achieving the 45,000 monthly volume run rate projected by HSBC by FY28.

Additionally, the company’s proprietary Ather Grid charging infrastructure continues to grow, giving it a first-mover advantage in building an integrated EV charging ecosystem—something that few competitors currently offer at scale.

Stock Performance and Market Sentiment

Currently trading around ₹345, Ather Energy shares are up modestly over the past month. However, with target prices from HSBC and Nomura indicating a 30–33% upside, investor sentiment is expected to turn more positive. The market is gradually warming up to EV stories that offer focused exposure and long-term profitability visibility, and Ather seems to be checking those boxes.

In comparison, other listed EV players like TVS, Bajaj, and Ola Electric are either diversified across ICE and EV or still in early phases of financial performance stabilization. Ather stands out as a pure-play 2W EV company with institutional backing, strong product differentiation, and policy tailwinds supporting its growth path.

Risks Investors Should Watch

While the outlook is bullish, there are risks investors should monitor:

• Competition: Aggressive EV launches from players like Honda, Bajaj, and TVS could impact Ather’s market share.
• Policy changes: Any potential increase in GST on EVs or changes in FAME or PLI schemes could affect margins.
• Execution: HSBC has noted that Ather’s valuation will depend more on execution rather than macro tailwinds. Supply chain hiccups or product delays could pose downside risks.

Final Verdict: Is Ather Energy a Strong Buy?

With strong buy calls from both HSBC and Nomura, Ather Energy is well-placed as a long-term EV winner in the Indian two-wheeler space. Its innovative product line, expanding reach, narrowing losses, and strategic alignment with government policies create a compelling case for investors. The ₹450–₹458 target range offers significant upside, especially as the company moves toward EBITDA breakeven and improves its operating margins.

For investors bullish on the Indian EV story, Ather Energy offers focused exposure to a high-growth segment with strong fundamentals. While execution will remain key, the company’s positioning in the evolving EV landscape makes it one of the most promising auto stocks to watch in 2025 and beyond.